Climate Change and Migration: The Role of International Law in This Emerging Issue

Nukunonu Atoll seaside, one of the regions of the world vulnerable to the impact of climate change.

Credit: UN Photo/Ariane Rummery

Every year in Bangladesh, about 500,000 people have to leave coastal areas and move to the capital, Dhaka, due to sea levels rising and their livelihoods disappearing. With no proper housing, these displaced folks end up in slums, which now make up 40 percent of Dhaka’s population.

By 2050, 13.3 million people are expected to be displaced, and a quarter of the country could be underwater. Dhaka, already struggling with storms and cyclones, won’t be able to handle all these new arrivals. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, even though it barely contributes to global warming (less than 0.5 percent of global emissions).

“Developing countries are being devastated by disasters they didn’t cause […] High borrowing costs are blocking their climate action plans. And support is far too little, far too late,” Antonio Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates said last year. This statement sums up what developing nations have been experiencing since time immemorial.

Since the industrial revolution, the rise in greenhouse gases and human changes to natural environments are causing more frequent climate disruptions. We’re seeing extreme conditions like desertification, ocean acidification, and more cyclones, floods, and forest fires. Expert groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have highlighted these issues, pushing governments and international organizations to recognize the urgency.

One major impact of climate change is climate migration, which means people moving within or between countries because their homes and ways of life are changing. The World Bank says there could be 216 million climate migrants by 2050, and this number might keep going up as we learn more about climate change. It’s tough to predict exactly how many because we can’t foresee all the effects of climate disruption. Climate migrants don’t fit the criteria for legal refugee status under the 1951 Geneva refugee Convention, so their situation isn’t officially recognized in international law.

The damage from climate change isn’t the same everywhere. Poor, densely populated developing countries are hit hardest. Climate-induced migration will be crucial in many parts of the world and will affect northern countries too. In the 1990s, debates began about whether our political and legal systems needed to change to address this. There’s growing awareness of the issue internationally, but it’s still not discussed enough.

Existing legal framework

The idea of ‘environmental refugees’ first popped up in 1985 in a United Nations Development Programme (UNEP) report by Essam El Hinnawi and gained traction in the media and debates during the 1990s. International organizations started paying attention to it more recently, with the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) showing interest in 1992 with their study ‘Migration and the Environment’. Since then, they’ve held various workshops to get political leaders to notice, like the 2011 International Dialogue on Migration (IDM).

Since January 2015, the IOM has had a dedicated division for this issue, working to raise awareness and research legal protection. It wasn’t until the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) expanded its focus from politically displaced migrants to include environmental refugees. From the 2000s onwards, political and international development players have been waking up to the issue of climate migration, thanks to lots of media coverage that sparked public interest, which then pushed governments and international organizations like the UN to take action. Now, refugees from environmental disasters are a big deal for the UN and other international agencies.

Several international initiatives have come up since then, especially at various COPs. In 2010, the Cancun Agreements included paragraph 14(f), and in 2011, the Dhaka Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) reinforced the link between migration and climate change. A significant milestone was the Paris COP in 2015, which emphasized addressing displacement caused by climate change. These agreements, though not legally binding, were steps forward, similar to the UN Human Rights Committee’s statement on January 7, 2020, and the Marrakech Pact adopted on December 19, 2018, which recognized the protection of people moving for environmental reasons.

Other areas of law, like human rights and environmental law, also intersect with climate refugee law. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights helps fill gaps left by non-binding texts with its references to the right to life, food, health, and a healthy environment. Environmental law focuses on protection through principles, recommendations, and incentives aimed at common goals and responsibilities. Despite these efforts, the United Nations and international bodies haven’t shown much interest, and progress has been slow.

Most migration happens within national and regional borders, so it’s crucial to address this issue at the regional level. There are several emerging initiatives, like the Nansen initiative by Switzerland and Norway, the Convention of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), and the Cartagena Declaration. These agreements aim to recognize and facilitate migration for climate and environmental reasons. However, in South and Southeast Asia, there are no regional or bilateral agreements between countries. According to a 2021 World Bank study, by 2050, climate change will force 89 million people in East Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia to move. So, what’s stopping us from establishing the status of climate refugees internationally?

Closing Ceremony of COP21, Paris

Credit: UN Photo/Mark Garten

Causes of lack of commitment

There are a bunch of reasons why there’s a legal void, political inaction, and why international organizations struggle to make an impact at global summits. It all boils down to how complicated this whole issue is. First off, the link between climate change and migration isn’t straightforward. There are a ton of other factors involved like social, economic, and political stuff. Plus, migration is also covered by consular, humanitarian, human rights, and refugee laws. It’s tough to create legal frameworks that cover all these aspects.

Another hurdle is figuring out which organization should handle these migrants – the UNHCR (for forced migration) or the IOM (for voluntary migration). With climate change, this line gets really blurry over time.

Using terms like ‘environmental refugees’ and ‘climate refugees’ could mess up the current international legal system for protecting refugees. It might even hurt other refugees because changing certain texts could lead some countries to back out of treaties. This is partly because of the rise in nationalist policies aimed at limiting immigration for security reasons, and also because northern countries, which aren’t right next to the most at-risk areas, aren’t as affected by climate migration.

An international agreement could change the national laws of some countries that don’t want to lose control over their migration policies. Plus, it’s hard to adopt a single status for climate refugees because their situations vary so much. There are three main reasons people move due to climate change: coastal erosion from rising sea levels, lower rainfall and soil degradation, and extreme climatic events like hurricanes or floods. Depending on the situation, migration can be permanent or temporary and can vary in mobility. It all depends on how well the country can handle these events, its capacity to accommodate migrants, and the specific climate and environmental risks it faces.

Also, there’s a big difference between environment and climate. Creating a status for environmental refugees is broader than for climate refugees because it includes natural disasters not caused by human activity, like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. So, it’s really tough to create a one-size-fits-all status for climate or environmental refugees, given the diversity in their situations, the wealth and adaptation level of their state, its risk tolerance, and the nature of the risks.

One of the main problems for UN agencies is their decision-making autonomy. They face issues with policy sovereignty because of their funding and allocated budgets. The biggest donors are industrialized northern countries, most of which don’t want to recognize climate change as a factor in forced displacement due to the cost. States are increasingly making targeted donations for specific missions, excluding the issues they find most troublesome. As a result, climate migration gets pushed to the side because northern countries don’t want to cooperate on solving this problem.

Areas of Pakistan Ravaged by Floods

Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Consequences and adaptation strategy

Climate change and the resulting migrations have a huge impact on people. The three most affected areas are South and Southeast Asia, the Pacific islands, and sub-Saharan Africa. These regions face serious economic and social issues, especially when it comes to food security and jobs, which just make poverty worse.

Climate change is drastically changing how some people live. To handle these changes, it’s crucial to come up with adaptation strategies to help communities be more resilient. This means investing in infrastructure, providing information, and implementing risk prevention measures. But with tight budgets and sometimes no solutions in sight, some regions see migration as the best way to adapt. After all, we can’t control all the effects of climate change in the long run. So, it’s important to encourage migration and treat displaced people as refugees instead of just migrants.

These policies should start at the national level since most migration happens within countries. But because the causes of displacement are a global issue, rich industrialized countries, which are largely to blame, need to support the affected countries. This support should be both economic, as per the UNFCCC’s principle of common but differentiated responsibility, and in terms of migration, by accepting some of the displaced people.

Migration due to global warming is a tricky issue because it overlaps with other reasons people move. Sure, some people move for environmental reasons, but it’s usually mixed with economic and political factors, making climate-related migration a big deal for a lot of people.

We need a new approach to dealing with displacement. Trying to categorize it by specific reasons isn’t the answer to the long-term refugee problem. Climate change refugees are part of a bigger, complex global issue where national policies play a huge role. One way to make progress is to stop calling it a ‘crisis’ or ‘problem’, which only makes it seem like a danger and fuels political moves to resist and reject migrants.

Population movements are inevitable and pose a challenge for societies. The international community and organizations need to step in as intermediaries between states to foster cooperation and manage migration. This can help reduce the negative impacts, especially for the affected populations, as well as for host and origin states.

To address this urgent situation, we need to rely on international law. Formerly industrialized countries, which aren’t directly affected by this growing issue, need to reconsider their stance and prioritize it in their long-term policies.

‘We need leadership, cooperation, and political will. And we need it now,” Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 1/12/2023.

Climate change is a growing problem for human societies, particularly in densely populated developing countries. This phenomenon accentuates so-called multifactorial migrations, as they add to and merge with other socio-economic migrations. Despite the urgency of the situation, we are faced with a legal vacuum when it comes to taking care of these people under international law, since they are not covered by the 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. This lack of action can be explained by the legal complexity of the problem and the lack of international cooperation in this field. However, policies are needed to limit the consequences for both developing and developed countries. These include climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Adrien Benito is a French exchange student who spent a semester at Yonsei University. After completing a double degree in Economics and Geography at a university in Paris, he decided to continue his studies and pursue a master’s degree in Asian Studies at the University of Geneva in Switzerland. He then specialized in international law, human rights, and environmental law, with a particular focus on East and Southeast Asia. His final thesis focuses on land grabbing affecting indigenous populations in Northern Laos and its impact on human rights.He also enjoys discovering new cultures, watching documentaries, and trying out world cuisines.